A robust nonlinear mixed-effects model for COVID-19 deaths data

by   Fernanda L. Schumacher, et al.

The analysis of complex longitudinal data such as COVID-19 deaths is challenging due to several inherent features: (i) Similarly-shaped profiles with different decay patterns; (ii) Unexplained variation among repeated measurements within each country, these repeated measurements may be viewed as clustered data since they are taken on the same country at roughly the same time; (iii) Skewness, outliers or skew-heavy-tailed noises are possibly embodied within response variables. This article formulates a robust nonlinear mixed-effects model based in the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions for modeling COVID-19 deaths, which allows the analysts to model such data in the presence of the above described features simultaneously. An efficient EM-type algorithm is proposed to carry out maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters. The bootstrap method is used to determine inherent characteristics of the nonlinear individual profiles such as confidence interval of the predicted deaths and fitted curves. The target is to model COVID-19 deaths curves from some Latin American countries since this region is the new epicenter of the disease. Moreover, since a mixed-effect framework borrows information from the population-average effects, in our analysis we include some countries from Europe and North America that are in a more advanced stage of their COVID-19 deaths curve.


page 3

page 8


Approximate inferences for nonlinear mixed effects models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

Nonlinear mixed effects models have received a great deal of attention i...

Bayesian Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data: An Overview, Implementation, and Applications

Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analy...

Poisson-Tweedie mixed-effects model: a flexible approach for the analysis of longitudinal RNA-seq data

We present a new modelling approach for longitudinal count data that is ...

Canonical fundamental skew-t linear mixed models

In clinical trials, studies often present longitudinal data or clustered...

When and How to Lift the Lockdown? Global COVID-19 Scenario Analysis and Policy Assessment using Compartmental Gaussian Processes

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many cou...

Predication of Inflection Point and Outbreak Size of COVID-19 in New Epicentres

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had caused more that 8 million i...

Integrative analysis of time course metabolic data and biomarker discovery

Metabonomics time-course experiments provide the opportunity to understa...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset