Graph Neural Networks for Improved El Niño Forecasting

12/02/2020
by   Salva Rühling Cachay, et al.
0

Deep learning-based models have recently outperformed state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting models, such as for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current deep learning models are based on convolutional neural networks which are difficult to interpret and can fail to model large-scale atmospheric patterns called teleconnections. Hence, we propose the application of spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to forecast ENSO at long lead times, finer granularity and improved predictive skill than current state-of-the-art methods. The explicit modeling of information flow via edges may also allow for more interpretable forecasts. Preliminary results are promising and outperform state-of-the art systems for projections 1 and 3 months ahead.

READ FULL TEXT
research
04/11/2021

The World as a Graph: Improving El Niño Forecasts with Graph Neural Networks

Deep learning-based models have recently outperformed state-of-the-art s...
research
10/22/2022

Generative Modeling of High-resolution Global Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme pr...
research
11/01/2018

Taylor-based Optimized Recursive Extended Exponential Smoothed Neural Networks Forecasting Method

A newly introduced method called Taylor-based Optimized Recursive Extend...
research
03/18/2019

Lorenz Trajectories Prediction: Travel Through Time

In this article the Lorenz dynamical system is revived and revisited and...
research
07/29/2021

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks for multi-site PV power forecasting

Accurate forecasting of solar power generation with fine temporal and sp...
research
10/21/2021

High-resolution rainfall-runoff modeling using graph neural network

Time-series modeling has shown great promise in recent studies using the...
research
08/30/2023

MSGNN: Multi-scale Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network for Epidemic Forecasting

Infectious disease forecasting has been a key focus and proved to be cru...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset