Coincidences and the encounter problem: A formal account
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Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence, based on non-trivial computations. The model presented here suggests that coincidences occur when subjects perceive complexity drops. Co-occurring events are, together, simpler than if considered separately. This model leads to a possible redefinition of subjective probability.
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