Do We Really Need Deep Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting?
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Time series forecasting is a crucial task in machine learning, as it has a wide range of applications including but not limited to forecasting electricity consumption, traffic, and air quality. Traditional forecasting models relied on rolling averages, vector auto-regression and auto-regressive integrated moving averages. On the other hand, deep learning and matrix factorization models have been recently proposed to tackle the same problem with more competitive performance. However, one major drawback of such models is that they tend to be overly complex in comparison to traditional techniques. In this paper, we try to answer whether these highly complex deep learning models are without alternative. We aim to enrich the pool of simple but powerful baselines by revisiting the gradient boosting regression trees for time series forecasting. Specifically, we reconfigure the way time series data is handled by Gradient Tree Boosting models in a windowed fashion that is similar to the deep learning models. For each training window, the target values are concatenated with external features, and then flattened to form one input instance for a multi-output gradient boosting regression tree model. We conducted a comparative study on nine datasets for eight state-of-the-art deep-learning models that were presented at top-level conferences in the last years. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach outperforms all of the state-of-the-art models.
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