Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world

by   Ke Wu, et al.

The COVID-19 has been successfully contained in China but is spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized growth model and the generalized Richards model to the reported number of infected cases from Jan. 19 to March 10 for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, four severely affected countries (Japan, South Korea, Iran, Italy) and Europe as a whole. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures, and use this experience from China to analyze the calibration of other countries. The different models provide different future projections including upper and lower bounds of scenarios. We quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some instructive variations across provinces. However for other countries, it is almost inevitable to see the continuation of the outbreak in the coming months. Japan and Italy are in serious situations with no short-term end to the outbreak to be expected. There is a significant risk concerning the upcoming July 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo. Iran's situation is highly uncertain with unclear and negative future scenarios, while South Korea is approaching the end of the outbreak. Both Europe and the USA are at early stages of the outbreak, posing significant health and economic risks to the world in the absence of serious measures.


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