Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian approach
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Objective: To estimate the number of deaths in Peru due to COVID-19. Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. Exposure: COVID-19. Outcome: Number of deaths. Results: Assuming an intervention level similar to the one implemented in China, the total number of deaths in Peru is expected to be 612 (95 days after the first reported death, the 99 observed. The inflexion point in the number of deaths is estimated to be around day 26 (95 estimates can help authorities to monitor the epidemic and implement strategies in order to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.
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