Perceptron Theory for Predicting the Accuracy of Neural Networks
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Many neural network models have been successful at classification problems, but their operation is still treated as a black box. Here, we developed a theory for one-layer perceptrons that can predict performance on classification tasks. This theory is a generalization of an existing theory for predicting the performance of Echo State Networks and connectionist models for symbolic reasoning known as Vector Symbolic Architectures. In this paper, we first show that the proposed perceptron theory can predict the performance of Echo State Networks, which could not be described by the previous theory. Second, we apply our perceptron theory to the last layers of shallow randomly connected and deep multi-layer networks. The full theory is based on Gaussian statistics, but it is analytically intractable. We explore numerical methods to predict network performance for problems with a small number of classes. For problems with a large number of classes, we investigate stochastic sampling methods and a tractable approximation to the full theory. The quality of predictions is assessed in three experimental settings, using reservoir computing networks on a memorization task, shallow randomly connected networks on a collection of classification datasets, and deep convolutional networks with the ImageNet dataset. This study offers a simple, bipartite approach to understand deep neural networks: the input is encoded by the last-but-one layers into a high-dimensional representation. This representation is mapped through the weights of the last layer into the postsynaptic sums of the output neurons. Specifically, the proposed perceptron theory uses the mean vector and covariance matrix of the postsynaptic sums to compute classification accuracies for the different classes. The first two moments of the distribution of the postsynaptic sums can predict the overall network performance quite accurately.
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