Probabilistic and mean-field model of COVID-19 epidemics with user mobility and contact tracing

09/11/2020

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by   M. Akian, et al.

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We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing routing, i.e. change of residence, from commuting, i.e. daily mobility - and ii) contact tracing procedures. We confront this model to public data on daily hospitalizations, and discuss its application as well as underlying estimation procedures.