Understanding and Mitigating the Uncertainty in Zero-Shot Translation
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Zero-shot translation is a promising direction for building a comprehensive multilingual neural machine translation (MNMT) system. However, its quality is still not satisfactory due to off-target issues. In this paper, we aim to understand and alleviate the off-target issues from the perspective of uncertainty in zero-shot translation. By carefully examining the translation output and model confidence, we identify two uncertainties that are responsible for the off-target issues, namely, extrinsic data uncertainty and intrinsic model uncertainty. Based on the observations, we propose two light-weight and complementary approaches to denoise the training data for model training, and mask out the vocabulary of the off-target languages in inference. Extensive experiments on both balanced and unbalanced datasets show that our approaches significantly improve the performance of zero-shot translation over strong MNMT baselines. Qualitative analyses provide insights into where our approaches reduce off-target translations
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