Inferring sources of substandard and falsified products in pharmaceutical supply chains

07/12/2022
by   Eugene Wickett, et al.
0

Substandard and falsified pharmaceuticals, prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, substantially increase levels of morbidity, mortality and drug resistance. Regulatory agencies combat this problem using post-market surveillance by collecting and testing samples where consumers purchase products. Existing analysis tools for post-market surveillance data focus attention on the locations of positive samples. This paper looks to expand such analysis through underutilized supply-chain information to provide inference on sources of substandard and falsified products. We first establish the presence of unidentifiability issues when integrating this supply-chain information with surveillance data. We then develop a Bayesian methodology for evaluating substandard and falsified sources that extracts utility from supply-chain information and mitigates unidentifiability while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. Using de-identified surveillance data, we show the proposed methodology to be effective in providing valuable inference.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
12/02/2018

Towards Automatic Discovery of Cybercrime Supply Chains

Cybercrime forums enable modern criminal entrepreneurs to collaborate wi...
research
12/02/2018

Mapping the Underground: Towards Automatic Discovery of Cybercrime Supply Chains

Cybercrime forums enable modern criminal entrepreneurs to collaborate wi...
research
07/29/2020

Optimal Procurement Auction for Cooperative Production of Virtual Products: Vickrey-Clarke-Groves Meet Cremer-McLean

We set up a supply-side game-theoretic model for the cooperative product...
research
04/01/2022

A solution approach for the anonymous sharing of sensitive supply chain traceability data

Supply chain traceability systems have become central in many industries...
research
03/26/2023

Dynamic Game of the Dual-Channel Supply Chain Under a Carbon Subsidy Policy

This study investigates the dynamic game behaviors of dual-channel suppl...
research
09/03/2021

Simultaneous quantification and changepoint detection of point source gas emissions using recursive Bayesian inference

Recent findings suggest that abnormal operating conditions of equipment ...
research
07/05/2023

Federated Epidemic Surveillance

The surveillance of a pandemic is a challenging task, especially when cr...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset