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10/31/2022
Monotonic Mechanisms for Selling Multiple Goods
Maximizing the revenue from selling two or more goods has been shown to ...
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10/13/2022
Forecast Hedging and Calibration
Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are cl...
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10/13/2022
Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, Finite Recall, and Nash Dynamics
We propose to smooth out the calibration score, which measures how good ...
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09/23/2022
Posterior Probabilities: Nonmonotonicity, Asymptotic Rates, Log-Concavity, and Turán's Inequality
In the standard Bayesian framework data are assumed to be generated by a...
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09/23/2022
Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism
The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically d...
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09/13/2022
Calibrated Forecasts: The Minimax Proof
A formal write-up of the simple proof (1995) of the existence of calibra...
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09/11/2022
"Calibeating": Beating Forecasters at Their Own Game
In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by thei...
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12/24/2017