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01/25/2023
Evaluating Probabilistic Classifiers: The Triptych
Probability forecasts for binary outcomes, often referred to as probabil...
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12/16/2022
Easy Uncertainty Quantification (EasyUQ): Generating predictive distributions from single-valued model output
How can we quantify uncertainty if our favorite computational tool - be ...
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08/06/2021
Regression Diagnostics meets Forecast Evaluation: Conditional Calibration, Reliability Diagrams, and Coefficient of Determination
Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are two sides of the same coin...
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03/22/2021
Using scoring functions to evaluate point process forecasts
Point process models are widely used tools to issue forecasts or assess ...
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08/07/2020
Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: Reliability diagrams and score decompositions revisited
A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibr...
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07/11/2020
Scoring Interval Forecasts: Equal-Tailed, Shortest, and Modal Interval
We consider different types of predictive intervals and ask whether they...
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05/26/2020
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death...
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11/29/2019
ROC movies – a new generalization to a popular classic
Throughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (RO...
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09/09/2019
Isotonic Distributional Regression
Isotonic distributional regression (IDR) is a powerful nonparametric tec...
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09/13/2018
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used ubiquitously to ...
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06/19/2018
Properization: Constructing Proper Scoring Rules via Bayes Acts
Scoring rules serve to quantify predictive performance. A scoring rule i...
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06/19/2018
Properization
Scoring rules serve to quantify predictive performance. A scoring rule i...
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03/27/2015